| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Penn | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $88K | Trade → |
| Benicio del Toro | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $65K | Trade → |
| Miles Caton | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $60K | Trade → |
| Jacob Elordi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| Paul Mescal | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Stellan Skarsgård | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Resolved |
| Adam Sandler | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Resolved |
| William H. Macy | 2% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $423 | Resolved |
| Delroy Lindo | 6% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $414 | Resolved |
| Tie | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $163 | Trade → |
| Mark Hamill | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $20 | Resolved |
| Andrew Scott | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This prediction market asks which actor will win the Actor Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role. It aggregates market participants' expectations about the eventual winner and can highlight shifts in award-season sentiment.
The supporting actor category is a recurring feature of major film-award seasons and often reflects a mix of critical acclaim, industry recognition, and studio campaigning. Historically, outcomes are influenced by earlier guild and critics' awards, visibility during ceremonies, and whether a performance captures voters' attention as a distinctive contribution.
In this context, market prices convey traders' collective view of who is likely to win at the time of trading; treat prices as a dynamic indicator of sentiment and consult the market's settlement rules to understand when and how the official winner will determine payouts.
Settlement occurs when the awarding body publicly announces the official winner for the named category; the market page will display the current trading close time or 'TBD' and post updates—consult that page and the exchange's settlement rules for the final timeline.
Each outcome corresponds to a listed nominee or option on the market; view the outcomes panel on this market's page to see the exact mapping of names to outcomes and any non-nominee options (for example, 'Other').
The market resolves based on the awarding body's official announcement and the exchange's published resolution policies; ties, disqualifications, or corrections are handled according to those rules—check the market's help or rules section for the specific procedures.
Precursor awards provide evidence of momentum and voter alignment: consistent wins across relevant guilds strengthen a nominee's case, while mixed results signal uncertainty; consider the overlap between those voting bodies and the awarding body's electorate when interpreting their relevance.
Exchanges typically freeze outcome lists at market creation, but if the awarding body officially amends nominees, the exchange will follow its amendment and settlement policies, which may include announcements or adjusted resolution mechanics—monitor the market page for any official changes.