| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Friend of Dorothy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Singers | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jane Austen's Period Drama | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Two People Exchanging Saliva | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Butcher's Stain | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market trades expectations about which film will win the 2026 Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. It matters because it aggregates information from festivals, critics, industry campaigns, and insider sentiment into a single market signal.
The Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film honors non-animated short films (generally under 40 minutes) that meet the Academy’s eligibility rules; nominees often emerge from festival winners and academy-qualifying programs. Historically the category spotlights emerging filmmakers and can be influenced by festival momentum, distributor screening efforts, and industry buzz.
Market prices reflect collective expectations at a point in time and update as new information arrives (nominations, festival awards, campaigning); they are informative signals but not guarantees of the outcome.
Kalshi lists the market close as TBD; the official winner will be known when the Academy announces the winner at the 2026 Oscars ceremony, and the market will resolve based on the Academy’s official announcement.
The Academy typically nominates up to five films in the short film categories; the specific films considered in this market are the outcomes listed on the Kalshi market page.
Nominations are selected by the Academy’s Short Films and Feature Animation Branch; final voting for the winner is usually open to the Academy’s eligible voting membership according to Academy voting rules.
A Live Action Short is a non-animated motion picture generally under 40 minutes (including credits) that meets the Academy’s qualifying criteria, such as winning an Academy-qualifying festival award or completing a qualifying theatrical release, and complying with other Academy rules.
Major festival awards and premieres, the Academy’s shortlist or nomination announcements, targeted voter screenings and press campaigns, and any eligibility decisions or disqualifications will be the primary drivers of market movement.