| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belén | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Late Shift | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Secret Agent | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| All That’s Left of You | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Homebound | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Sound of Falling | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| It Was Just an Accident | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sentimental Value | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Palestine 36 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The President’s Cake | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Left-Handed Girl | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Kokuho | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| No Other Choice | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Voice of Hind Rajab | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sirât | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which film will win the 2026 Oscar for Best International Feature Film, aggregating trader expectations about the outcome of the Academy Awards. It matters because markets often move around major awards-season developments and can help highlight consensus shifts in a crowded field.
The Academy Award for Best International Feature Film is decided from submissions made by countries, narrowed to a shortlist and then to official nominees by Academy committees; the winner is chosen by Academy voters. Historically, festival premieres, national selection strategies, and awards-season campaigning have strongly influenced which films become frontrunners, and rules about language and release windows determine eligibility.
Market odds on Kalshi reflect the collective view of traders and will move as new information—festival wins, nominations, disqualifications, or campaign activity—arrives; they are a real-time indicator of sentiment, not guarantees of the final outcome.
The winner will be revealed at the Academy Awards ceremony that covers the 2025 film year (held in 2026); the exact ceremony date is set by the Academy and the market will typically settle once the Academy officially announces the winner.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific film entered into the market (usually nominees or heavily traded possibilities) and may also include catch-all options; check the market interface for the current list of outcome labels and any 'Other' designation.
Countries submit one film each into contention, the Academy compiles a shortlist and then nominates a slate of films; only films that meet eligibility rules and become nominees can realistically win, so shortlist and nomination announcements are major inflection points for this market.
If the Academy changes eligibility or disqualifies a title, it can materially affect market sentiment; whether Kalshi adds, removes, or relabels outcomes depends on the platform’s market rules, but traders should watch official Academy notices for the primary impact on likely winners.
Key developments include major festival results and premieres, the Academy’s shortlist and nomination announcements, national submission news, critical consensus or surprise reviews, disqualification rulings, and visible campaign activity targeted at Academy voters.