| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 Meters to Andriivka | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Mistress Dispeller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Apocalypse in the Tropics | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Cover-Up | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Holding Liat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Folktales | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Coexistence, My Ass! | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Come See Me in the Good Light | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cutting through Rocks | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yanuni | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Seeds | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Perfect Neighbor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Alabama Solution | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mr. Nobody against Putin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market lets traders speculate on which film will win the 2026 Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. It matters because the outcome reflects industry consensus about artistic merit, cultural impact, and awards-season momentum.
The Best Documentary Feature Oscar is awarded by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and traditionally recognizes feature-length nonfiction filmmaking released or qualifying in the eligibility window for the ceremony. Recent years have seen documentaries gain visibility through festival premieres, streaming releases, and awards-season campaigning; the 2026 race will follow the same general awards-season dynamics while being subject to any Academy rule updates for that year.
Market odds on this page represent traders' aggregated expectations about which listed outcome will be declared the Academy winner; odds move as new information—nominations, festival results, reviews, and campaigns—enters the public record. Use the market as a continuously updating signal of perceived likelihoods rather than a fixed forecast.
This market will resolve once the Academy officially announces the winner at the 2026 Oscars ceremony and the result is publicly confirmed; check the market page for the exact resolution notice.
Eligibility generally requires that a film meet the Academy’s feature-documentary running time and qualifying-release rules for the 2026 award year—typically through a qualifying theatrical run or recognized festival qualification and adherence to any submission deadlines; consult the Academy’s official rules for specific criteria.
Key milestones include major festival premieres and prizes, critics’ and guild awards, the Academy’s documentary shortlist (if published), the official nomination announcement, and the voting windows leading up to the Oscars ceremony, all of which can materially shift market prices.
Documentary-branch members typically view submissions and participate in nomination voting (often producing a shortlist and then final nominees), while the winner is decided by the broader Academy membership in accordance with the Academy’s voting procedures for that year.
The market lists 16 distinct outcomes to represent the specific films or options offered by the platform for this event; each outcome corresponds to a named film or stated condition on the market page—review the market’s outcome list and descriptions to see which title or scenario you are trading.