| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Quinta's Ghost | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Autokar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Hurikán | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| I Died in Irpin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Night Boots | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Playing God | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Snow Bear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Shyness of Trees | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Éiru | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Cardboard | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Three Sisters | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Forevergreen | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Girl Who Cried Pearls | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Retirement Plan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Butterfly | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This KALSHI market asks which film will win the 2026 Academy Award for Animated Short Film; it aggregates public expectations about the Oscar outcome and can highlight shifting sentiment during awards season.
The Academy Award for Animated Short Film recognizes short-form animated works from studios and independent creators and often spotlights emerging talent and technical innovation. Nomination and eligibility depend on Academy rules, qualifying festival prizes or theatrical runs, and the Short Films and Feature Animation Branch voting process.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders and respond to new information—festival results, shortlist and nomination announcements, critical reception and campaigning—but are not guarantees of the final result. Use market signals alongside awards-season reporting and official Academy updates.
The event page lists the market close as TBD; typically prices react most around the Academy shortlist and nomination announcements and then again just before the ceremony. Check the market page for the official close time and compare it to the Academy’s nomination and final-ballot schedule.
Each outcome corresponds to a tradeable option listed by the market operator—usually individual film titles or structured options included by the market creator; the set of outcomes may include named films, longshots, or pooled ‘other’ options depending on how the market was constructed.
To be eligible a short must meet Academy rules (for example, running-time limits and qualifying festival awards or theatrical criteria); the Short Films and Feature Animation Branch creates shortlists and nominates films, so qualification and nomination events materially change who can plausibly win.
Watch qualifying-festival award results, festival premieres and press reactions, any Academy shortlist or nomination announcements, distributor campaigning (voter screenings and targeted publicity), and late-breaking trade or insider reports—each tends to move market prices.
If a film is disqualified or an outcome changes, the market operator follows its settlement rules—this may include voiding or reassigning outcomes per the market terms. Traders should review the market’s rulebook and announcements on KALSHI for resolution policies.